It was losing. Then it wasn't.

LA County's Measure ER — a proposed half-cent sales tax increase to fund public healthcare — was trailing since election night on June 2. Then on June 8, "yes" votes moved ahead of "no" votes for the first time.

As of Monday June 8, 946,757 voters — or 50.35% — supported the proposed sales tax increase, while 933,753 voters — or 49.65% — opposed it. The margin: approximately 13,000 votes.

With 148,000 ballots still left to count, the final result may not be known until at least Tuesday afternoon — and vote counting updates are expected through June 26, with official certification by July 10.

Nothing is final. But for the first time since polls closed, Measure ER is winning.

What Happened — The Late Mail Ballot Flip

The reason Measure ER flipped from losing to winning is predictable in California elections — and worth understanding.

Measure ER was able to narrow its deficit since initial Election Day results as later mail ballots tended to skew toward Democratic voters, according to poll-watchers. "If that trend continues, it's possible that ER could pass," said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs.

This pattern — conservative-leaning in-person votes counted first, progressive-leaning mail ballots counted later — is standard in California primary elections. It's why California race calls often take days or weeks after election night.

The 148,000 remaining ballots are almost certainly mail ballots. If they continue skewing Democratic at the same rate as those already counted, Measure ER's lead grows. If the remaining pool is more mixed, the margin could narrow back toward a "no" outcome.

Nobody knows yet. That's why this story is still live.

What Measure ER Actually Does

For anyone just tuning in — here's the proposal in plain terms.

Measure ER — the Essential Services Restoration Act — would raise LA County's sales tax rate from 9.75% to 10.25% for five years, generating an estimated $1 billion a year for the county's general fund.

County supervisors approved a spending plan directing those dollars to offset cuts to Medi-Cal under the Trump administration's One Big Beautiful Bill. But that spending plan is not legally binding — a detail that critics of Measure ER hammered throughout the campaign.

That last point matters: voters are being asked to approve a general tax — not an earmarked, dedicated fund. The supervisors have said they'll spend the money on healthcare. They're not legally required to.

The Yes on ER campaign, called Restore Healthcare for Angelenos, was backed largely by nonprofit health clinics. The No campaign was led by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, which argued sales tax in LA County is already too high and that raising it again is "unreasonable and unfairly harsh" for those who can't afford it.

The Tax Fatigue Argument — And Why It Almost Won

The fact that Measure ER is squeaking by — rather than passing comfortably — tells a story about where LA County voters are right now.

"Number one, we're spent," said Fernando Guerra, a pollster who has tracked LA County elections for decades. "Number two, we don't trust the general decision-making. Number three, when we've given you specific dollars for specific issues, you haven't done it."

LA County residents have approved multiple tax measures in recent years. A permanent half-cent increase for homelessness services passed in November 2024 — Measure A. That increase took effect April 1, 2026, raising most LA County combined rates to 9.75%. Measure ER would add another half-cent on top.

Supervisor Kathryn Barger, the only dissenting vote when the board placed Measure ER on the ballot, said: "This proposed half-cent increase would push us even higher, making our county less affordable for families and less appealing for consumers to shop and businesses to operate."

The measure passed anyway — barely. If it holds.

What Businesses Need to Know If It Passes

For the 10 million residents and millions of businesses operating in or selling into LA County, a "yes" outcome has direct practical implications.

The new rate: If Measure ER passes, LA County's sales tax rate increases from 9.75% to 10.25% in most jurisdictions — with some cities already carrying higher rates due to their own local add-ons.

When it takes effect: If the "yes" vote holds, LA County would begin imposing the additional 0.5% sales tax in October 2026. That gives businesses approximately three to four months after certification to update their systems.

What needs to change: Every business collecting sales tax on transactions in LA County — whether in a physical store or shipping to LA County addresses — needs to update their rate from 9.75% to 10.25% in October. That means POS system updates, tax software configuration changes, and for ecommerce sellers, verifying that their platform is pulling the correct updated rate for LA County ZIP codes.

The cities where it's more complex: LA County contains 88 incorporated cities. Many have their own additional local sales tax on top of the county rate. In those cities, the combined rate is already above 9.75% — and Measure ER's half-cent would add to whatever that city's current combined rate is. Sellers need to verify the post-Measure ER rate for each specific delivery address in the county, not just apply a blanket countywide rate.

Ecommerce sellers specifically: If you ship goods to customers anywhere in LA County — one of the largest consumer markets in the country — and you're using address-level tax calculation, you'll need to confirm your software updates the LA County rate automatically when the change takes effect. Not all tax software updates local rates in real time. Verify with your vendor.

The Bigger Picture: What This Vote Tells Us

Win or lose, Measure ER's near-passage sends a signal that extends beyond LA County.

A half-cent sales tax measure for healthcare, in a traditionally progressive county, trailing on election night and then squeaking to a potential win on mail ballots — that's not a comfortable mandate. It's a warning sign for local governments that have come to rely on ballot-box tax increases as a funding mechanism.

Experts say affordability concerns may be eroding support even among LA County's traditionally tax-friendly voters. When a measure like this barely passes in LA County — or potentially doesn't — it signals that the political conditions for easy sales tax increases have changed, even in deep-blue jurisdictions.

For the national sales tax picture: every close result like this makes other county governments think twice before putting a sales tax measure on the ballot. The message voters are sending isn't "never raise our taxes." It's "we need to trust you, and we need to see where the money goes."

What to Watch Next

Updates to the vote count are expected today — June 9 — and daily through June 26. The race could shift again.

The California Secretary of State's Office is required to certify the final vote tallies by July 10, marking the official end of the 2026 primary election. The Sales Tax People

If Measure ER holds its lead through certification, the October 2026 effective date kicks in and businesses have roughly 90 days to update their systems. If the lead flips back to "no" as remaining ballots are counted, LA County's sales tax stays at 9.75% and the supervisors face a harder conversation about how to fund the healthcare programs they promised.

Either way, the story isn't over. Check back as count updates drop — the next update is expected this afternoon.

Selling into LA County and want to make sure your sales tax setup is ready for a potential rate change in October? Book a free consultation with our team at sales.tax. We'll review your California footprint and make sure you're set up correctly — whatever the final Measure ER result turns out to be.

Contra Costa County asked. Voters said no.

Contra Costa County voters rejected Measure B — a proposed 0.625-cent sales tax increase — with just 41.1% support in early results from the June 2 primary election.

The measure needed a simple majority to pass. It wasn't close.

Voter turnout countywide hovered at 22% — meaning a small slice of the electorate decisively rejected a tax that would have raised an estimated $150 million a year for five years.

And the rejection carries a message that extends well beyond one Bay Area county.

What Measure B Was Asking For

Contra Costa County's board of supervisors placed Measure B on the June 2 primary ballot with a 4-1 vote, proposing a 0.625% general sales tax increase for five years to help address anticipated federal cuts to health care, supplemental food assistance, and other county services. TaxHero

If it had passed, the sales tax in Richmond would have increased from 9.75% to 10.375% — or slightly more than 10 cents on every dollar of eligible taxable purchases. Residents of El Cerrito and Pinole would have faced paying the highest combined rate in the county at 10.875%. TaxJar

For context: that's higher than almost anywhere in the country. And it would have landed on top of existing local and state taxes that have been climbing for years.

The Ballot Language Got Thrown Out by a Judge

This story has a legal subplot most people missed — and it's directly relevant to how local governments use ballot language to influence outcomes.

Contra Costa County must change the ballot question for Measure B because the question written by county supervisors was biased to encourage a "yes" vote, a judge ruled April 1. Two residents challenged the wording as biased — and Contra Costa County Superior Court Judge Leonard Marquez agreed. Quizlet

The board voted to put the measure on the ballot, but two local voters filed a petition alleging that the language in the ballot question sought to influence voters in favor of the measure. Savant Labs

The court found the original wording argumentative and prejudicial — striking phrases that characterized a "no" vote as risking hospital closures — and ordering the rate expressed as "(0.625%)" for clarity. Shopify

A second legal challenge followed. Minor v. Connelly (Case No. N26-0554) targeted the official ballot arguments filed by Measure B proponents — including county supervisors — alleging the proponents' argument contained verifiably false claims about the projected revenue figures.

The measure went to voters already damaged by legal scrutiny of its own language.

The Arguments That Killed It

Opponents made two arguments that resonated — and both are worth understanding because they're showing up in sales tax debates across California.

Argument 1: It's premature. Opponents noted the extra sales tax would take effect in October 2026 while the initial federal budget cuts aren't slated to go into effect until January 2027. "Measure B starts collecting in October 2026 — locking in five years of higher taxes before most impacts are even known," they stated.

Argument 2: It's a spending problem, not a revenue problem. Opponents stated that "Contra Costa County has a spending problem, not a revenue problem." They noted that Contra Costa County employee salaries and benefits have risen 47% since 2020 — and that Measure B could facilitate or directly bankroll more such increases. TaxHero

Both arguments are classic anti-tax-measure talking points. But in a county where combined sales tax rates were already approaching — and in some cities exceeding — 10%, they landed.

California's Compounding Sales Tax Problem

The Contra Costa result doesn't exist in isolation. It's part of a broader pattern of voter resistance to local sales tax increases that has been building across California.

In the same June 2 election, Los Angeles County is still counting votes on Measure ER — a half-cent sales tax increase for healthcare that pre-election polls showed running at 47% opposition and 45% support. The LA results won't be certified until July 10. TaxJar

The pattern: counties across California are turning to sales tax measures to backfill federal funding cuts — and voters are increasingly saying no, especially when combined rates push past 10%.

California already has a 7.25% statewide base rate — the highest statewide base in the country. Add county and city additions, and residents of many Bay Area communities are already paying 9.5% to 10.75% on most purchases. A new analysis ranked California 5th worst in the nation for cost-of-living burden. Shopify

At some point, the voter math changes. People who might have supported a half-cent increase five years ago — when their combined rate was 8.5% — resist the same increase when they're already at 10%.

What the Low Turnout Means

Voter turnout countywide hovered at 22%.

That number matters in both directions. On one hand, low turnout means the result may not reflect the full county's preferences — dedicated opponent groups can punch above their weight when most voters stay home. On the other hand, low turnout on a sales tax measure that supporters framed as urgent healthcare funding suggests enthusiasm for the measure was weak even among those who backed it.

A measure with genuine broad support tends to drive its own turnout. Measure B didn't.

What This Means for Businesses in Contra Costa County

For businesses operating in Contra Costa County, the rejection means the status quo holds — for now.

Current combined sales tax rates across the county remain unchanged:

• Richmond, San Pablo, and most unincorporated areas — 9.75%
• El Cerrito and Pinole — 10.25% (already among the highest in the state)
• Antioch, Concord, and Walnut Creek — varies by city; most in the 9.25% to 9.75% range

The October 2026 collection date that would have applied to Measure B is now moot. No system updates are needed. No rate change is coming — at least not from this measure.

But Contra Costa County still faces the same federal funding pressure that drove Measure B onto the ballot in the first place. The county was asking voters to supplement service cuts after anticipated federal cuts. Those cuts haven't been resolved. The county will need to address the gap somehow — and another ballot measure, a November placement, or spending cuts are all still on the table. Quaderno

The Broader Signal for Sales Tax Policy

The Contra Costa result — combined with polling on LA County's Measure ER — sends a clear message to county governments across California and beyond:

Voters will approve sales tax increases when they trust where the money is going, when the ballot language is fair, when the rate increase feels proportionate, and when the timing makes sense. When any of those conditions are missing, the answer is no.

Measure B's forerunner was 2020's Measure X — a 0.500% sales tax increase that passed with strong support. The same county that approved Measure X in 2020 rejected a slightly larger measure in 2026. Six years of stacking local taxes, rising costs, and widening distrust of government spending have shifted the electorate. AccurateTax

For local governments watching this result: the era of routinely passing sales tax measures to fill funding gaps is ending. The political conditions that made those measures easy to pass are gone in many California communities.

For businesses watching this result: every rejected measure is a reminder that local tax rates are a live policy debate — and that the rates you're calculating today may look different six months from now, depending on what ends up on the November ballot.

Operating a business in Contra Costa County or anywhere in California and want to make sure your sales tax rates are current and your compliance is set up correctly? Book a free consultation with our team at sales.tax. We'll review your California footprint and make sure you're calculating the right rate for every jurisdiction where you sell.

Los Angeles County is asking its residents to pay more at the register.

Los Angeles County voters will decide whether they want to increase the sales tax for five years to raise $1 billion annually to support public health care and other essential services. Sovos LATAM

The vote is June 2. And right now, it's too close to call.

A recent poll shows 47% of likely voters opposing Measure ER and 45% supporting it — with the outcome genuinely uncertain heading into election day. Deloitte

What Measure ER Actually Proposes

Measure ER would raise LA County's sales tax by half a percent — from 9.75% to 10.25% — for five years, to replenish hospital and clinic budgets slashed by federal cuts to Medi-Cal. Texas Society of CPAs

The Essential Services Restoration Act proposes to add a temporary half cent per dollar — about 5 cents for every $10 spent in LA County — for five years.

If approved by voters, it's estimated to generate about $1 billion annually to support healthcare, with an estimated $100 million per year directed specifically to public health efforts. Resalecertificate

This is not a permanent tax. It has a five-year sunset. But it would push LA County's combined sales tax rate past 10% — a threshold that matters both symbolically and practically for consumers and businesses.

Why LA County Is Already One of the Most Taxed Places to Shop

Here's the context that makes Measure ER particularly charged.

LA County residents have already seen their sales tax creep up significantly in recent years. Starting April 1, 2026, the countywide sales tax increased by 0.25% — from 9.25% to 9.5% — following the passage of Measure A in the November 2024 election, a permanent tax increase to fund expanded homelessness prevention programs.

That increase is less than six weeks old. Now voters are being asked to approve another 0.5% on top of it.

In cities like Long Beach, the combined rate would go from 9.75% to 10.25%. In some cities within the county — like Santa Monica, West Hollywood, and Culver City, which carry their own local add-ons — combined rates would go even higher.

The Case For

Supporters frame Measure ER as an emergency response to federal policy.

The Community Clinic Association of Los Angeles County called it "an urgent and necessary step to stop the damage and to protect access to life-saving care," with support from community health organizations including Venice Family Clinic and MLK Community Healthcare.

The core argument is straightforward: federal cuts to Medi-Cal are gutting the funding that LA County's safety-net hospitals and clinics depend on. Without a local revenue source to fill the gap, clinics close, patients lose coverage, and the public health infrastructure weakens. The sales tax is the fastest available mechanism to raise the money needed.

Accountability would be ensured through independent audits, public reporting, and a citizens' oversight committee.

The Case Against

Opponents aren't arguing against healthcare. They're arguing against the method — and the timing.

The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association argued that sales tax in LA County is already too high and that raising it again is "unreasonable and unfairly harsh" for those who can't afford it.

The Pasadena Chamber of Commerce voted to "strongly oppose" the measure, citing concerns about rising costs for consumers and businesses, as well as what it described as insufficient oversight and ineffective use of existing county funds. Avalara

The regressive tax argument runs deep here. A half-cent sales tax costs the same whether you earn $30,000 or $300,000 a year — but it takes a much bigger bite out of lower-income households who spend most of what they earn. The irony is that the people most likely to need the healthcare funded by the tax are also the people most burdened by paying it.

What It Means for Businesses in LA County

If Measure ER passes, the compliance implications kick in fast.

If a majority of voters approve Measure ER, LA County would begin imposing the additional 0.5% sales tax in October 2026.

That gives businesses roughly four months to update their point-of-sale systems, reprogram their tax calculation software, and notify customers. For multi-location retailers operating across different cities within LA County — where combined rates already vary — this adds another layer of rate complexity to manage.

It also raises a broader question: at what point does a 10%+ sales tax rate start changing consumer behavior? Research consistently shows that high combined tax rates can push consumers toward online purchases from out-of-state sellers, border shopping in lower-tax neighboring counties, or simply spending less. Businesses in already-thin-margin categories like food service, retail, and entertainment will feel that shift first.

The Bigger Pattern

LA County is not an isolated case.

Across California, several other cities and counties have sales tax measures on the June 2026 ballot — including Bell, Bell Gardens, Commerce, and Covina, all proposing their own local sales tax increases. Morgan Lewis

The trend reflects a national reality: as federal funding tightens and state budgets face pressure, local governments are increasingly turning to the sales tax as their most accessible revenue lever. It's visible, it's broad-based, and — unlike property taxes or income taxes — it can be implemented relatively quickly.

Whether voters in LA County decide that's the right move on June 2 will be one of the most-watched local tax decisions of 2026.

Running a business in Los Angeles County and not sure how a potential rate change would affect your compliance setup? Book a free consultation with our team at sales.tax. We'll walk through your current obligations and make sure you're ready for whatever the ballot brings.