It was losing. Then it wasn't.
LA County's Measure ER — a proposed half-cent sales tax increase to fund public healthcare — was trailing since election night on June 2. Then on June 8, "yes" votes moved ahead of "no" votes for the first time.
As of Monday June 8, 946,757 voters — or 50.35% — supported the proposed sales tax increase, while 933,753 voters — or 49.65% — opposed it. The margin: approximately 13,000 votes.
With 148,000 ballots still left to count, the final result may not be known until at least Tuesday afternoon — and vote counting updates are expected through June 26, with official certification by July 10.
Nothing is final. But for the first time since polls closed, Measure ER is winning.
The reason Measure ER flipped from losing to winning is predictable in California elections — and worth understanding.
Measure ER was able to narrow its deficit since initial Election Day results as later mail ballots tended to skew toward Democratic voters, according to poll-watchers. "If that trend continues, it's possible that ER could pass," said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs.
This pattern — conservative-leaning in-person votes counted first, progressive-leaning mail ballots counted later — is standard in California primary elections. It's why California race calls often take days or weeks after election night.
The 148,000 remaining ballots are almost certainly mail ballots. If they continue skewing Democratic at the same rate as those already counted, Measure ER's lead grows. If the remaining pool is more mixed, the margin could narrow back toward a "no" outcome.
Nobody knows yet. That's why this story is still live.
For anyone just tuning in — here's the proposal in plain terms.
Measure ER — the Essential Services Restoration Act — would raise LA County's sales tax rate from 9.75% to 10.25% for five years, generating an estimated $1 billion a year for the county's general fund.
County supervisors approved a spending plan directing those dollars to offset cuts to Medi-Cal under the Trump administration's One Big Beautiful Bill. But that spending plan is not legally binding — a detail that critics of Measure ER hammered throughout the campaign.
That last point matters: voters are being asked to approve a general tax — not an earmarked, dedicated fund. The supervisors have said they'll spend the money on healthcare. They're not legally required to.
The Yes on ER campaign, called Restore Healthcare for Angelenos, was backed largely by nonprofit health clinics. The No campaign was led by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, which argued sales tax in LA County is already too high and that raising it again is "unreasonable and unfairly harsh" for those who can't afford it.
The fact that Measure ER is squeaking by — rather than passing comfortably — tells a story about where LA County voters are right now.
"Number one, we're spent," said Fernando Guerra, a pollster who has tracked LA County elections for decades. "Number two, we don't trust the general decision-making. Number three, when we've given you specific dollars for specific issues, you haven't done it."
LA County residents have approved multiple tax measures in recent years. A permanent half-cent increase for homelessness services passed in November 2024 — Measure A. That increase took effect April 1, 2026, raising most LA County combined rates to 9.75%. Measure ER would add another half-cent on top.
Supervisor Kathryn Barger, the only dissenting vote when the board placed Measure ER on the ballot, said: "This proposed half-cent increase would push us even higher, making our county less affordable for families and less appealing for consumers to shop and businesses to operate."
The measure passed anyway — barely. If it holds.
For the 10 million residents and millions of businesses operating in or selling into LA County, a "yes" outcome has direct practical implications.
The new rate: If Measure ER passes, LA County's sales tax rate increases from 9.75% to 10.25% in most jurisdictions — with some cities already carrying higher rates due to their own local add-ons.
When it takes effect: If the "yes" vote holds, LA County would begin imposing the additional 0.5% sales tax in October 2026. That gives businesses approximately three to four months after certification to update their systems.
What needs to change: Every business collecting sales tax on transactions in LA County — whether in a physical store or shipping to LA County addresses — needs to update their rate from 9.75% to 10.25% in October. That means POS system updates, tax software configuration changes, and for ecommerce sellers, verifying that their platform is pulling the correct updated rate for LA County ZIP codes.
The cities where it's more complex: LA County contains 88 incorporated cities. Many have their own additional local sales tax on top of the county rate. In those cities, the combined rate is already above 9.75% — and Measure ER's half-cent would add to whatever that city's current combined rate is. Sellers need to verify the post-Measure ER rate for each specific delivery address in the county, not just apply a blanket countywide rate.
Ecommerce sellers specifically: If you ship goods to customers anywhere in LA County — one of the largest consumer markets in the country — and you're using address-level tax calculation, you'll need to confirm your software updates the LA County rate automatically when the change takes effect. Not all tax software updates local rates in real time. Verify with your vendor.
Win or lose, Measure ER's near-passage sends a signal that extends beyond LA County.
A half-cent sales tax measure for healthcare, in a traditionally progressive county, trailing on election night and then squeaking to a potential win on mail ballots — that's not a comfortable mandate. It's a warning sign for local governments that have come to rely on ballot-box tax increases as a funding mechanism.
Experts say affordability concerns may be eroding support even among LA County's traditionally tax-friendly voters. When a measure like this barely passes in LA County — or potentially doesn't — it signals that the political conditions for easy sales tax increases have changed, even in deep-blue jurisdictions.
For the national sales tax picture: every close result like this makes other county governments think twice before putting a sales tax measure on the ballot. The message voters are sending isn't "never raise our taxes." It's "we need to trust you, and we need to see where the money goes."
Updates to the vote count are expected today — June 9 — and daily through June 26. The race could shift again.
The California Secretary of State's Office is required to certify the final vote tallies by July 10, marking the official end of the 2026 primary election. The Sales Tax People
If Measure ER holds its lead through certification, the October 2026 effective date kicks in and businesses have roughly 90 days to update their systems. If the lead flips back to "no" as remaining ballots are counted, LA County's sales tax stays at 9.75% and the supervisors face a harder conversation about how to fund the healthcare programs they promised.
Either way, the story isn't over. Check back as count updates drop — the next update is expected this afternoon.
Selling into LA County and want to make sure your sales tax setup is ready for a potential rate change in October? Book a free consultation with our team at sales.tax. We'll review your California footprint and make sure you're set up correctly — whatever the final Measure ER result turns out to be.